Saturday, January 8, 2011

hockey math to validate the best

If you were building a hockey team and you had the pick of forward, goalie and d-man you'd have some tough choices to make.  Today lets focus on the blue line.  Sure, big Buff is lighting the lamp in ATL, and he gets full marks for that, but would anyone really take him with their first pick for a teams d-corps?  No way.  Some, taking age in to account, would take Lidstrom, other Chara, Pronger or Keith, but my first pick on defense would be Shea Weber.

Bigg Buff has 41 points this year to lead all blue liners, and his team in scoring.  Shea Weber leads his team in scoring, but he only has 41.  Atlanta's D have accounted for 109 points this season, Nashville only 63.  If you pro-rate Weber's total based on an equal number of points by Nashville then he'd be at 36 points, and taking in to account that Atlanta's goal totals are considerably higher than Nashvilles (137 to 104) and applying that percentage to Weber's adjusted total we come to 47 points.  All I'm trying to point out is how much a players totals are affected by his team's system.  If Weber were in Atlanta he would have more points.  Would he have 47 right now?  Who knows, but he would have much, much more. 

Given Weber's age, size and ability he has to be my first pick, especially when you get over the points totals hurdle.  I don't think Dustin Byfuglien would have 21 points on Nashville right now.

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