Islanders at Crossroads

The rumor mill is buzzing with talks of the Islanders floating Kyle Okposo's availability to other NHL GM's, with as many as four having serious interest.  Okposo, the 7th overall pick in the 2006 draft, flirted with 20 goal seasons twice before injuries limited him to only 38 games last season, and now he's off to a horrible start in 2011-12. Listed at 6'0", 210 Lb. Okposo is a strong, powerful skater with undeniable skill, but is he washed-up? Is he just the type of gifted player that only shines in a strong core of top-six forwards? Is he just too injured?

He's not alone on Long Island. The team in general is playing terribly, including Joshua Bailey, another early first round pick from 2008. He's got 3 points in 18 games to start the year and was rumored to be very close to becoming a Canuck last season.

The Islanders have been so bad for so long they've got a long list of first round picks, some not doing too well in the big leagues while some of the more recent ones seem to be destined to turn out, so, it would make sense that there is some merrit to the Bailey and Okposo rumors, and if I'm an Islander fan I sure hop there is.  This team is sitting on a roster of mis-managed prospects with a whole bunch more waiting in line, and what they need to do is bring in some veteran help (or the assets to help them do so) while the Bailey's and Okposo's are still worth something.

GM Garth Snow is sitting on an embarassment of riches, and the team is on the precipice of repeating history as they rush Nino Neiderreiter to the NHL just to be a healthy scratch.  He's got three games under his belt this season - this is not the way to bring along a premiere power forward.

They need to chalk this season up as a loss, let the kids they have mature and put them through a camp to see what they've got.  There's no quick fix for this problem, and hey, they'll atleast get another crop of high picks for tanking yet again. As it stands they've got about three top six forwards, and only one playmaking defenseman, and possibly no goalie, but they have almost enough in house to ice a competitive squad, it will just take time and the careful acquisition of the right complementary players.

So let's look at what's in the pipeline for the Islanders, starting with forwards

Casey Cizikas - C -  starred for Team Canada at the WJC and is doing well in the AHL this year with 12 points through 18 games.  He's looking like a fourth round steal.

Johan Persson -L - The big Swede is cutting his teeth in the WHL and has 27 points in 22 games so far

Brock Nelson - F - The Isle's gambled on Nelson after his draft stock plumetted.  He was supposed to be a top-ten pick in 2010 but Snow and Co., scooped him with the final pick of the first round and he looks to have finally found his game, putting up near a point per game stats in North Dakotah.

Kirill Kabanov - F - The big Russian winger is tearing up the QMJHL and is finally healthy.  His injury problems knocked him to the third round in 2010 but he is showing his skill now that he's healthy.

Anders Lee - C - The product of the USHL may turn out to be the steal of the 2009 draft. He's a 6'3" power centre (think Ryan Getzlaf) and has nearly a goal per game to start the year in Notre Dame. Not bad for a sixth round pick.

Corey Trivino - C - 8 goals in 10 games to start the year at B.U. The former phenom of the OPJHL is finally showing his promise.

David Ullstrom - C - Another power centre, Ullstrom is up with the big club and has shown a verstatile game in the AHL after learning his trade in the Elitserien.

Ryan Strome - C - It's not very often a 100 point centre falls to 5th overall in a draft year but Strome was a gift and he's looking like a good one.

Don't forget about Rhett Rakhshani, Jesse Joenssu, Jason Gregoire and Justin Dibennidetto who were all taken in the past five drafts and seem destined for NHL careers.

Now on the back end

Scott Mayfield - The Mammoth from Missouri is standing tall in his Freshman season with Denver

Andrey Pedan - The next D-man the Isles took after Mayfield, another 6'4" blueliner, this one a Russian plying his trade in the OHL and showing a good bit of offensive upside

Robbie Russo - The third d-man taken by the Isles in 2011 has 6 points in 12 games as a rookie in Notre Dame.

Brenden Kichton - The Isles had one more blueliner on their wish list at the 2011 draft and took Spokane's 80 point d-man in the fifth round.  He's off to another great offensive year.

Calvin de Hann - The second first round selection the Isle's owned in the 2009 draft they used to select the all-around solid de Haan who has 5 points in 14 games with Bridgeport of the AHL.

Anton Klementyev - Already in his third year in the AHL, not flashy but reliable.

Aaron Ness - Small by NHL standards at 5'10" he is producing in the AHL

Matt Donovan - A fourth round pick in 2008, Donovan left Denver after two productive seasons and is now in his second professional season with Bridgeport where he has 7 points in 17 games to start the season.

Mark Katic, Andrew MacDonald and Travis Hamonic are already up with the Isles and have all been taken in the past five drafts.

In a nut shell, it seems like it's due time for succession on Long Island, a great problem to have for Snow.  At a glance I don't see a deeper well of NHL prospects on any of the other 29 NHL teams, and the Isles seem to have improved their drafting capabilities, now they need to develop that talent right and net as much as they can for their current misfits.

Re-Torts

After an uninspired 5 - 2 loss on Broadway to wrap up a six game road trip San Jose Sharks' Captain Joe Thornton said it was a game they should have won and proceeded to critique the Rangers stating: "To be honest with you, they were probably the softest team we played against on this road trip." A roadie that included stops in Boston, Nashville, Detroit, Long Island and New Jersey. Thornton elaborated, "We played some good teams, and I think we probably should have beat these guys, to be honest with you."

I disagree with Thornton, but not in the fact that he did say it but his rankings of teams. New Jersey, Boston and the Islanders are all out of the playoff picture if the season ended today, the Rangers are atleast knocking on the door in 9th with games in hand. Nashville is in 8th in the west but at times have looked awful. I would say the Rangers were more middle of that pack in terms of softness.

I'm not sure if his use of 'soft' meant he felt the Rangers lacked sandpaper but it seems he was implying that overall they were a very beatable team, and what's wrong with coming out and saying that after game?  What's wrong with a team Captain addressing the media and saying, 'Ya, we should've had that one.'? So many other team leaders would've defended their team play that night and pumped the winning teams tires, but not Jumbo Joe, and I applaud him for doing it.

The only problem, as Rangers' Head Coach John Tortorella pointed out today, is that Joe hasn't won anything in the NHL.  That doesn't stop Thornton from addressing a should-be win turned loss but it does set him up for a very easy jab from one of the best verbal sparrers in the game.

Tortorella innitially dismissed the comments but took the opportunity after todays morning skate to shoot back saying, "Joe's a heck of a player, but here's a player popping off about our team and Joe hasn't won a thing in this league. He could go down, as a player, being one of the better players in our league never to win anything. So what he should do is just shut up. It was uncalled for, it was classless, and I've never had it happen like that before."

This war of words could potentially escalate over the next couple days but I expect it to lose mommentum sooner rather than later as these two are from seperate coasts, and that is largely why I feel Joe said it.  He had an opportunity to deflect pressure from his team and put it on himself in a situation that won't be as volatile or long lived if he had, say called out the Ducks, Coyotes, Kings or Stars.  With the exception of a select few NHL hockey players don't typically say things on camera without thinking. Joe also had to know he'd be dealing with a very willing combatent in Tortorella and for his words to resonate they needed a response. Kudos to Joe for taking the weight off his teams shoulders.

This is a Sharks squad that is under tremendous pressure to win now.  They've been on the cusp for years and haven't advanced to the finals despite being eliminated in the third round in each of the past two seasons. GM Doug Wilson had a busy offseason acquiring Martin Havlat and Brent Burns and yet the Sharks have come out of the gate with a modest 6-4-0 start in a tough Pacific Division. Thornton knows the stakes are high and he should be commended for speaking from the heart and giving an honest answer, but, John Tortorella has every right to call him out on his well noted postseason failures, a fact I'm sure Jumbo Joe realizes. The reality is the clock is ticking on his career and the window of opportunity to win in San Jose won't be open forever. Thornton probably relishes the critique from Torts because it's likely not going to happen from within the franchise or his circle of confidants and he might just feel he needs a little extra motivation.

Joe spent last season becoming a better defensive player in his effort to achieve the ultimate goal and now this soft spoken giant is showing the chops to be an emotional leader off the ice. San Jose fans should be happy.

A closer look at the Surprising Senators

There were murmurs this past offseason that rebuilding Ottawa had been asked by their only remaining star forward Jason Spezza to facilitate a trade.  Spezza denied it.  He earned a lot of respect by openly addressing the topic and dismissing it as a rumor.  Trade request or not it’s been openly known the Oilers have been trying to pry Spezza out of Ottawa for the past couple years and the package of young talent and draft picks a true #1 Centre nets would have any GM in rebuild mode salivating.  Kudos to GM Bryan Murray for sticking with Spezza through a tough 2010-11 campaign and trusting he could help bring along a young team with limited offensive prospects. Jason has 15 points in 11 games as of tonight, tied for second in the league; his play and leadership have pulled Ottawa from a rocky start to fourth in the East after tonight’s victory in the battle of Ontario.

Tonight’s win was Robin Lehner’s first of the season and the sixth straight for the Sens.  He was recalled to step-in for injured back-up Alex Auld and quickly got in to game action in the second of back-to-back games turning aside 23 of 25 shots in the W.  Lehner was forced in to starting duty last season as a rookie in the spring just after his infamous World Junior performance which included an obscenity laced postgame interview in which he ripped game officials. Despite the signing of Craig Anderson he is still considered the goalie of the future in the Nation’s Capital and will likely return to the AHL when Auld is healthy.

The Senators were questioned when drafting Erik Karlsson from the Swedish Elite League at 15^th overall while so many highly touted picks were still available – they were on to something. After just one full year in the SEL Karlsson debuted in the bigs with 26 points in 60 games in 2009-10 and followed that up with a breakout performance last season tallying 45 points and establishing himself as one of the game’s best power play quarterbacks.  He’s off to a flying start this year performing at over a point per game clip. Sergei Gonchar, the prized pick of the UFA market two offseasons ago, had an off year in 20101-11 but has returned to form in the 2011-12 campaign helping the Sens to an astounding 31% power play success rate.

Gonchar and Karlsson are joined by long awaited prospect Jared Cowen who showed a surprising offensive flair in the preseason and David Runblad who was quietly snatched out of St.Louis’ system by Murray in the offseason.  Along with Filip Kuba and veteran Chris Phillips the Sens have an intriguing d-corpse that could round in to one of the leagues finest with experience.  Playing in front of any of three capable keepers, Auld, Anderson or Lehner, this team could put the embarrassing five, six and seven goal against games from early in the season in the rearview in a hurry.

Milan Michalek is on pace for a career year with 13 points through 11 games.  He’ll have to keep it up following the loss of Daniel Alfredson who has been out since a collision with New York’s Wojtek Wolski. It was a tough choice to return one of the few prized forward prospects, this year’s 6^th overall pick Mika Zibanijed to the Swedish Elite League but it was the right one. He managed one assist in his nine game trial and will benefit from the increase in ice time he will receive in the SEL. Nikita Filatov, acquired from Columbus this offseason, has been recalled to replace him.  The former first round pick of the Blue Jackets has one of the finest skillsets in the game and hopes to put it all together in a fresh start with the young Sens.

Murray also added veteran centre Zenon Konopka whose pugilistic abilities are seconded only by his faceoff skills. Colin Greening and Zack Smith have come out of relative obscurity to provide depth scoring alongside Chris Neil, Nick Foligno, Jesse Winchester and rookie Stephane Da Costa. Shots against is still over 30 and the penalty Kill is in the low 70s but this team has more depth than they get credit for and a youthful exuberance that will remedy those numbers with time and experience.

Paul MacLean was hired from Detroit to help fit this rag-tag group of career AHLers, rookies and veterans together. His six years of experience in the Red Wings’ system will be invaluable to the team as they find their identity and were clearly targeted in the search to replace Cory Clouston.

Obsessed with the Oil

I am absolutely fascinated by the early success of the Edmonton Oilers.  They have scored the second fewest goals in the league and are leading their division - how is this possible?

I love the multitude of surprises in this young season.  Dallas is leading the Pacific and Colorado was in the lead of the North West until the Oil bursted out the gates at 5-2-2.  In the East Florida and Ottawa are in playoff positions.  Look at the MLB, for example; there are only a handful of teams in competition each season - the same handful give or take a team or two, but in the NHL a team that let in 7 goals in back to back games is in playoff contention.

But back to the Oil, what is with Magnus Paajarvi?  It's obvious that team defense is making them competitive but can Tom Renney not find a way to give this 20 year old who had an impressive 34 points in his rookie season straight out of Sweden some more ice?  He's pointless in nine games to open the year, a minus-1 with no PIMs.  He was doled out a meager 8:39 of ice time over just 13 shifts in Thursday's win over the previously undefeated Capitals.  He's 6'2, 200Lb. already and has decent wheels, an early first round pick with all the tools and he was given eight seconds of power play time in that game out of eight Edmonton odd man advantages - HOW????

You have to give him some minutes, at all, not just meaningful ones but enough to even get his head in the game.  He hasn't played more than 14:50 in the last five games.  He's listed as a left winger but he's at his best playing the right side, his off wing as a left handed shot and using his speed and deft puck skills to create scoring chances.  He had a minute more than Ben Eager in the Capitals game and that can't continue.

East...the new West

For years we've watched a major imbalance of power between the two Conferences.  The West has way more depth while the stars of the East, namely the Capitals, have flared out in the playoffs after lighting up the lower level competition in the regular season, but the tides are changing.

It's far too early for stats to hold much water, but hey, Minnesota at 3-2-3 and Anaheim at 4 -3 -0 are in the playoffs right now if the season ended today and the scene isn't much different in the East.  But let's throw the early standings out the window and just assess the level of talent in each Conference.

There's a reason why last year's cup winners, the Boston Bruins are third...in their own division, Toronto who are leading the North East and Buffalo who are right behind them made amazing offseason moves and each have a very strong supply of young talent in the pipeline.  Sticking with the North East, do you really think Montreal is a last placed team?  Erik Cole isn't enough on his own to add size to a tiny forward core, but a healthy Markov in that defense and the Carey Price of last year are enough to make any AHL forward group good enough to earn an NHL playoff spot.  Don't look now but Ottawa may have turned a corner. Ok, they're destined for last and Alfredsson's hurt but Jason Spezza is back, Milan Michalek is looking like the player he should be and that young D is going to gel, and let us not forget what goalie Craig Anderson did on a young rebuilding Colorado team in the not so distant past.

The Atlantic is probably the strongest division in the East.  Pittsburgh is looking like they could be the team to beat even without Sid the Kid and receiving spot duty from their other uber-star Geno Malkin.  New Jersey still needs a better transition game but they're looking like a playoff threat and they might end up fifth if John Tavares and the kids from Long Island continue on the current trend.  That leaves the Rangers who are a perpetual threat as long as King Henrik is standing between the red metal.  I think the Rangers are a serious dark horse in the East this year.  Adding Brad Richards has created a possible two headed monster with Marian Gaborik.  They have great leadership in Ryan Callahan and a solid list of experience rugged depth forwards.  When the D is healthy they might have what it takes to win the only 16 games that matter.  Jaromir Jagr served noticed that he is for real with his two goals on three breakaways in last night's primetime match-up with the buds.  Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn are looking like a decent return for the jettisoned Carter and Richards.

That takes us to the South East where everybody's cup favourite is off to a perfect 7-0-0 start.  The Caps look good, and they're very different than the team that has collapsed the past three playoffs.  Florida is sitting in second in the SE and the offseason overhaul is looking like a good one.  Tampa has too much firepower not to make the playoffs and they're in third and Carolina is always a playoff threat.  Winnipeg has a good core - they'll challenge Ottawa for last in the East.

I think the East is only marginally better, but stack it up against the West and you'll see it will be harder to make the playoffs on the East Side.  It should be a fun battle between Carolina, Tampa, Florida, Toronto, New Jersey, New York New York and Montreal.

Better with Higher Competition

Scouting is not an exact science, we all know that.  Over the years I've come to think it's more like some sort of black magic and that the Red Wings have some sort of serious voodoo going on. 

I was cruising the box score of last night's Ducks/Dogs game and and I was shocked to see that Ryan Getzlaf's late tally making it a one goal game was only his second goal in seven games so far this season.  When you look at Getzy's stats they're impressive.  His game is unlike anyone elses now or ever.  His combination of size, gritt, all zones excellence, puzzling playmaking and top ten shot release have never before been seen.  I challenge you, name me one other player that brings all that he does as a true centre.

Amazing that he slipped to 19th in the stacked 2003 draft year...or is it?  Ryan Getzlaf has been an Olympic and NHL champ.  He's topped the 90 point plateau and projects to hang around it for years to come, yet in junior he topped out at 75 points with only 68 in his draft year.

Most of the games stars dazzled in juniors and have yet to reproduce the type of numbers in the NHL that they posted as wunderkinds in major junior, college or European leagues.  It took amazing foresight for Ducks scouting staff to see an increase in production from Jr. to the Show; here are a couple other examples:

-Jordan Staal - drafted directly ahead of higher scoring cetnres Jonathan Toews, Nik Backstrom and Phil Kessel in 2006 made the jump right from Jr. to the NHL and put up 29 goals in his rookie season compared to a career high 28 in junior.

-Patrick Sharp was never a point per game producer in the USHL or college but has emerged a dynamic two way threat.  He's posted five straight 20 goal campaigns for Chicago after GM Stan Bowman plucked him from the Flyer's system and earned a long term contract this off season on the strength of a 71 point campaign - he's got 7 points in 7 games to start this season.

How does a team identify the type of talent that like a fine wine get's better with age?

Shannavision

Has anyone stopped to consider just how difficult the job of NHL disciplinarian is?

Everyone is questioning Brendan Shannahan's rulings on suspensions, but they all questioned the rule changes coming out of the lockout and they may have been the biggest factor in the relative successes the league has enjoyed since.

How does someone as universally loved by fans during his playing career deserve that much abuse in his new role with the league?

It's extreme, no doubt, but figure it out already wouldya?  We've seen this before. When the new rules were implemented everything was getting called and we got to enjoy new hockey lingo like "parallel stick".  Eventually the players learned the boundaries and the game was better for it.  If discipline for dangerous hits can do for players health and well being what the post-lockout rule changes did for goal scoring then I welcome it with open arms